Oil prices moved higher Thursday after Chinese refiners reportedly suspended refined-product exports for October to bolster domestic inventories, while renewed fighting in the Persian Gulf added to supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate futures for November delivery (/CLX26) settled at $92.87 per barrel, up $2.45 from the previous close.
 

The reported cancellation of October refined-product exports added support to WTI as Beijing sought to protect domestic supplies amid extended marine-refueling delays, with some commercial vessels reportedly waiting as long as two weeks. The move comes as global markets contend with supply disruptions tied to the war in the Persian Gulf. Traders may also be incorporating higher shipping and logistics costs as vessel operators compete for alternative fuel supplies in an already constrained market.
 

The development follows discussion among U.S. policymakers about possible restrictions on diesel exports, an idea that has drawn criticism from economists. The potential effects of export limits differ because China and the United States occupy distinct positions in global trade. Shortly after reports of China’s action emerged, the Trump administration increased pressure on European allies to release strategic reserves.
 

China recorded a global trade surplus of $1.189 trillion in 2025, while the United States posted a $901.5 billion trade deficit. In a market already short of refined products, export restrictions could intensify scarcity, raise fuel costs, and transmit inflationary pressure through transportation and other goods. Those effects could also influence demand and pricing for feedstocks, including crude oil.
 

Because the United States is a large net importer and consumer, restricting fuel exports could push global product prices higher, increase the cost of imports, and place additional pressure on the trade deficit. China, by contrast, may be better positioned to absorb a reduction in exports because the immediate trade effect would be a narrower surplus rather than a wider deficit.
 

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and attacks on midstream infrastructure remain supportive of oil prices. Damage to pipelines or shipping routes can destroy capacity or delay crude deliveries to refineries. By contrast, attacks on downstream facilities can be bearish for unrefined crude in the near term because refinery outages reduce processing demand and leave more barrels available to the market. At present, the tighter conditions appear concentrated in refined products rather than crude itself, although crude balances could tighten as inventories are replenished.
 

The latest inventory data reinforce that distinction. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels to 427.3 million barrels, placing stocks 2% above the five-year average. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, 7% below the five-year average, while distillate inventories declined by 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, 14% below the five-year average. U.S. refineries processed 16.3 million barrels per day, down 554,000 barrels per day from the prior week, with capacity utilization ending the week at 92.5%.
 

WTI is testing the moving averages but is currently still above. The 50-day simple moving average is at 88.19 and the 200-day SMA is at 81.93. With recent price action we could see a bounce or break on the 50-day SMA.
 

The 14-day RSI is at 51.59% and moving lower. 
 

The directional movement index is flat with a weakening bullish trend. The ADX is moving lower at 20.54. The Positive directional index is moving lower at 22.55, and the negative directional index is also moving lower at 17.48. This indicates no real trend in the current price action. 
 

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