Asset Management
Today's Options Market Update
After Wall Street's worst week in 19 months, major indexes rose and yields fell early courtesy of a 4% dive in crude. This followed President Trump saying he has no plans for imminent attacks on Iran, with talks continuing. The positive vibe carried across major indexes, though Nvidia (NVDA) plunged 5% on news its board will investigate reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a suspected Chinese spy.
Tomorrow brings October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV), a "neocloud" firm hurt by last Thursday's carnage. The sell-off put the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) in technically oversold territory, but retail traders seem cautious. "Retail isn't proving to be the dip buyers they've been in the past," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR), told CNBC. "They didn't take the weakness Thursday as an opportunity to buy, so we may not be fully washed out yet and may have to see whether the retail trader at some point decides to step back in."
Stocks ended mixed Friday, helped by a rebound in chips, but closed well off intraday highs. Friday's tepid close could signal caution after massive hedge fund selling Thursday. October jobs growth, released early Friday, dramatically outpaced estimates at 165,000 but also sent chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month above 80%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, up from 60% the day before.
Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research
Morning Rush
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by ~2 basis points to 4.878%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.41 at 101.89.
WTI Crude Oil (/CL) December futures are lower by 2.87% to $88.22/barrel.
Gold prices have traded in a range of $4,062.50-4,143.30 and were last seen trading higher by ~1.39% to $4,131.40/oz.
Natural Gas prices for September futures have traded in a range of $2.988-3.171 today and were last seen trading higher by 5.07% to $3.15.
Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~0.76% over the last 24 hours to $75,320.04 today.
Today's Bullish Activity
Shares of Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG + $23.28 to $273.23) are rallying this morning after the United States’ largest electricity generator reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.06 ($1.21 beat) on Q3 revenue that increased 45.36% year-over-year (YoY) to $9.55B (above the $9.372B expected). The company also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $12.50-12.80 from $11.50-12.50, which is above het $12.17 analysts were modeling. Calls are slightly outnumbering puts, but the November 20th 240.00 put is the highest volume contract (volume is 1,003).
Also trading to the upside this morning, is Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG + $28.43 to $262.13) after the distributor of essential water and air solutions reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.43 ($0.13 beat) on Q3 sales that increased 9.5% YoY to $9.026B (above the $8.736B expected). The company also raised its fiscal-year 2026 net sales growth to “about 7%” from its prior forecast for mid-single-digit growth, and raised the lower end of its FY26 adjusted operating margin outlook to 9.6-9.8% (from 9.5-9.8%). Calls are outnumbering puts ~4:1 with the December 18th 280.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 76).
New 52-week highs (63 new highs today): Airbnb Inc. (ABNB + $3.15 to $193.14), Best Buy Company (BBY + $6.06 to $105.69), Moderna Inc. (MRNA + $19.42 to $273.61)
Notable Call Activity
Some unusual call activity (~5:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Starbucks Corp. (SBUX + $4.04 to $109.45) as option traders primarily target the November 13th 115.00 call. Volume on this contract is 26,741 versus open interest of 46, so it’s likely that nearly all the volume represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.09-0.14 each, which suggests bullish intent.
Today's Bearish Activity
Shares of NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA - $8.09 to $178.55) are under pressure today and the company said on Sunday that its board was investigating whether CEO Jensen Huang had been a target of a foreign intelligence effort, following a media report that Huang had a close relationship with a Chinese businesswoman who passed information to Beijing. Huang sent a company-wide memo admitting to the extramarital affair and apologized for being unfaithful to his wife, stating that he takes full responsibility for his actions. Shares of NVDA hit a seven-month low of $170.24 earlier in today’s trading session. Calls are outnumbering puts ~4:3 with the November 9th 180.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 310,835).
Also trading to the downside this morning is Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP - $1.18 to $39.15) after JPMorgan downgraded the beer maker to “Underweight” from “Neutral” and cut their price target on the stock to $37.00 from $41.00. Analysts at JPMorgan cited ongoing softness in the U.S. beer category, competition in the U.K., and incremental cost pressures which have been outpacing the company’s cost savings efforts. Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the November 20th 45.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 219).
New 52-week lows (106 new lows today): Axon Enterprises Inc. (AXON - $0.32 to $312.68), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS - $0.61 to $28.12), Strategic Education Inc. (STRA - $1.28 to $50.92)
Notable Put Activity
Some unusual put activity (~25:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL + $6.42 to $253.18) which is primarily being driven by a 4,870 contract block that was bought on the December 18th 200.00 put for $1.91 when the bid/ask spread was $1.10 x $2.25 (open interest is 200). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure, and we can assume that the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread. BURL is slated to report Q3 earnings on November 27th before the bell, so this (bearish) positioning captures the potential impact of that event.
Volume Signals
ASE Technology Holding Co. (ASX + $2.73 to $34.36): Option volume is running at ~16x the daily average on this provider of semiconductor manufacturing services which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the December 18th expiration earlier this morning:
- 37.50 call (open interest is 989): A 14,100 contract block traded for $1.84 when the bid/ask spread was $1.70 x $1.95
- 42.50 call (open interest is 2,179): A 14,100 contract block traded for $0.70 when the bid/ask spread was $0.55 x $0.75.
We know that both these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and while it’s difficult to be certain, it appears (since the block trade on the 42.50 call took place closer to the ask price) that a $5.00-wide bear call spread was established for a net credit of $1.14 (x 14,100 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that ASX will close below the $37.50 price level at expiration.
Braze Inc. (BRZE + $0.36 to $46.15): Option volume is running at ~12x the daily average on this customer engagement platform provider as option traders primarily target the February 2027 47.50 call. Volume on this contract is 24,129 (vs. open interest of 3,470), which included a 10,000 contract block that was bought at the ask price of $0.20. We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume the intent is bullish in nature since the trade took place at the ask price.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS - $0.06 to $40.67): Option volume is running at ~11x the daily average on this casino operator which is primarily being driven by a 15,400 contract block that was bought on the March 2027 35.00 call for $8.15 when the bid/ask spread was $7.15 x $8.35 (open interest is 466). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure, and we can assume that the intent is bullish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.
Gauging Volatility
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 5.29 to 20.35) has been in negative territory all day today (the intraday range is 20.31-25.08), as equity markets are higher across the board around the midday mark (DJI + 1,062, SPX + 170, $COMP + 656, RUT + 74). VIX option volume has been above average today at 637,736 contracts, and calls are outnumbering puts ~4:3 so far today.