Jobs data

• Benchmark revisions
• Fewer survey responses
• Initial jobless claims

Narrator: It's a jobs week without the jobs.

So… we do not get a jobs report this week, but we do get a really important update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that is their preliminary benchmark revisions for the prior year.

Now they conduct this process every single year, where they go through the data that they get from the establishment survey, which generates the nonfarm payroll number that you're used to seeing in every jobs report every single month.

Then they cross-check that with the state unemployment records that come from

the QCEW: quarterly consensus of employment and wages.

And really, what the BLS is trying to do here is reconcile the two and get a better, more fuller picture of the U.S. labor market over the prior year. And it's really to account for whether the establishment survey has been overstating or understating job growth in the prior year.

This is really important post-pandemic, because what we have seen is a pretty significant decline in response rates to the surveys that the government has been putting out.

Animation: Chart shows BLS response rate to current employment statistics. Chart shows steadily declining rate of participants in the survey, down from approximately 64% in 2013 to approximately 44% in 2026.

Narrator: From a stock market perspective, this is not necessarily market moving because this is, of course, backward looking data. From an economics perspective, of course, we want to know what the fuller picture is for U.S. labor the prior year.

However, if we do look at some of the more high-frequency data, especially weekly initial jobless claims.

Animation: Chart shows initial weekly jobless claims from 2025 and 2026, showing claims ranging between 205,000 and 260,000 in 2025 and between 190,000 and 235,000 so far in 2026.

Narrator: Those are still telling the same story that we've been seeing all year, which relatively low layoff activity across the entire economy.

So even if we do see a relatively large number for the benchmark revisions, whether it's to the upside of the downside and if it's a surprise, I don't think that we should put too much weight on that statistic.

Animation: Chart shows preliminary benchmark revisions for nonfarm payrolls for 12-month period ending March of each year. There are eight revisions to the upside, including one above 900,000, and 17 to the downside, including three moving it down 900,000, since 2005.

Narrator: Not to say that it doesn't matter and that we shouldn't care about it, but we should continue to focus on one of the better leading indicators for labor in this post-pandemic environment. And that has been initial jobless claims.