I'm Colette Auclair, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, June 13th:

Consumer sentiment, trade updates, and approaching central bank meetings all could influence markets on what might otherwise be a quiet spring Friday. Major U.S. indexes approach the weekend with small gains over the last four days amid signs of caution as tariff outcomes aren't necessarily following the most bullish script and data send mixed signals.

Disappointment over the tariff picture diminished slightly yesterday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it's possible the administration could extend the early-July deadline for negotiations on "reciprocal" tariffs for countries negotiating "in good faith." However, the trade picture remains uncertain, potentially keeping companies from being able to plan for spending and other priorities.

It's also getting closer to back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons, and major retailers could face rising costs as they prepare to stock shelves this summer ahead of the rush. Some of those costs could end up hurting margins, potentially eating into earnings. Or, if companies pass along costs to customers, inflation could rise and consumer demand could fall. All this threatens to keep the market wary in coming weeks.

A framework U.S. trade deal with China outlined by White House officials earlier this week still needs to be signed by the countries' leaders, and the details disappointed investors. The framework keeps tariffs on Chinese imports at the current 55% and doesn't loosen export controls to allow more shipments of U.S. high-tech products.

It also puts a six-month timeline on normalized Chinese exports of the rare earth minerals needed by U.S. companies, meaning this particular issue could resurface later this year. President Trump also suggested he could unilaterally decide on individual country tariffs before the early July deadline, raising concerns of elevated levels.

Separately, Trump said earlier this week that the U.S. is moving some government staff out of the Middle East, raising worries about possible skirmishes with Iran. Concerns over this apparently led to some Treasury buying yesterday as investors sought perceived safety, sending yields lower.

The Federal Reserve meeting starts this coming Tuesday and ends with new economic and rate projections Wednesday. The market is convinced there will be no rate move, with odds less than 4% of that, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference Wednesday is likely to be a weekly highlight as investors look for color on the Fed's new projections and economic developments. Powell's press conferences can sometimes move the market even on days when there's no rate adjustment.

Yesterday's May Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI, which excludes food and energy, both rose 0.1%, continuing a string of light inflation data. Analysts had expected a 0.2% rise for headline and a 0.3% rise for core PPI, which measures prices at the wholesale level. The April figures were both revised up to –0.2%.

"The PPI report came in much softer than expected," said Collin Martin, director, fixed income strategy, at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "The services component reversed April's decline, but the monthly gain still suggests the disinflationary trend continues and consumer demand is waning."

Both PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data as well as a recent bounce in jobless claims could be subjects of interest when the Fed meets. Tariff price pressure hasn't built even as the job market appears to be softening. May retail sales, due next Tuesday, also will be a fresh data point for the central bank to examine.

"So far we just haven't seen the tariffs in the actual inflation data yet," Schwab's Martin said. "Companies may be holding off passing the increases along since they aren't sure how long the tariffs will be around. Although that can't go on forever."

Initial weekly jobless claims data Thursday reinforced the narrative of a softening economy at 248,000, near the Briefing.com consensus of 250,000 but elevated for the third straight week. Continuing claims also stood out, climbing to 1.956 million, the highest in more than three years and up more than 50,000 from the prior week, suggesting jobs might be harder to find for people who lose their old ones.

"The labor market continues to show signs of cooling," said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy, at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Treasury yields fell Thursday following the light PPI gains and after a 30-year Treasury auction went well.

"The 30-year auction suggests there's still demand for longer-term U.S. Treasuries," Schwab's Howard said.

Odds of a Fed rate cut in July stayed near 25% Thursday despite the weak jobs and light inflation prints, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors seem more certain the Fed could cut rates in September, building in 77% chances of that. Futures trading shows a strong likelihood of two rate cuts taking place before the year ends.

Crude oil (/CL) topped $68 per barrel Thursday, the highest since April, as worries grew about a possible strike against the country. This raises concerns about the impact of gas prices on consumers and margins for major transport companies like airlines and trucking firms.

Adobe (ADBE) reported earnings after the close yesterday and exceeded analysts' expectations, but today's earnings calendar is light. Home builder Lennar (LEN) is expected to deliver results Monday afternoon but then there's not much in the way of fresh corporate results until next Friday. A Bank of Japan rate decision late Monday U.S. time and U.S. May retail sales Tuesday stand out ahead of the Wednesday Fed meeting conclusion.

A rate move by the Bank of Japan appears unlikely before next year, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters, reflecting uncertainty in the current tariff climate. The dollar hit new lows for the year yesterday.

Major U.S. indexes rose Thursday despite Boeing falling almost 5%after an Air India crash of a Boeing 787. Tech fared well as Oracle climbed on earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations and firm guidance. Overall volume was mixed through midday Thursday with strong volume on the Nasdaq and weak volume at the New York Stock Exchange. Utilities led all sectors Thursday, possibly reflecting the drop in Treasury yields. The latest initial public offering, Chime Financial (CHYM), climbed sharply. Most sectors moved less than 1% in either direction yesterday but the S&P 500 closed near its daily high and at the most lofty level since Feb. 20.

Technical support for the S&P 500 index likely remains near the 200-day moving average, currently around 5,800. The intraday weekly high near 6,060 could be near-term resistance Friday. For the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, the 200-day moving average of 20,466 is now far below the market's recent level near 22,000. The 50-day moving average is starting to gain ground on the 200-day, a positive technical sign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 101.85 points Thursday (0.24%) to 42,967.62; the S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 23.02 points (0.38%) to 6,045.26, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) added 46.61points (0.24%) to 19,662.49.