I'm Colette Auclair and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, June 10th:

Investors brace for inflation reports and Treasury auctions starting tomorrow, but trade remains top of mind today as U.S. and Chinese negotiators hash out their stances on subjects like rare earth minerals. Hopes for progress on semiconductor export restrictions gave the sizzling chip sector another boost yesterday, though Monday ended with no major announcements. Talks continue today after President Trump spoke positively about progress at a press conference late Monday.

However, things weren't so shiny for Apple shares, which fell more than 1% to kick off the week as investors seemed unenthused by the company's opening remarks at its Worldwide Developers Conference. Lack of fresh clarity on the delayed Apple Intelligence Siri features appeared to disappoint. The conference continues today and investors will likely monitor headlines. In other tech-related news, Oracle reports tomorrow followed by Adobe on Thursday.

The 10-year Treasury note yield slipped below 4.5% yesterday amid weak Chinese data and falling U.S. inflation expectations, but remains elevated on declining chances of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The next key yield road sign looms tomorrow when the government puts 10-year notes up for bid. A 3-year note auction today is more of an appetizer.

May inflation data Wednesday and Thursday also could shape the Treasury market. Tomorrow's U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) due at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show 0.2% headline CPI growth and 0.3% core CPI growth, with core extracting volatile food and energy prices. The previous month's figures were both 0.2%.

"There’s a push and pull between a disinflationary trend in services CPI as the economy slows a bit, but tariffs could pull up goods CPI in the coming months," said Collin Martin, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "With tariffs on everyone’s minds lately, the next few inflation reports will be key to see how much, if any, companies are passing along the price increases."

Futures trading as of late Monday worked in no chance of a June rate cut about 16% chances of one in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Odds of a September trim are near 62%.

"The Fed funds futures market is pricing in less than two rate cuts by the end of the year, the fewest number expected since February," Schwab's Martin said. "Federal Reserve officials are in their blackout period until next week’s FOMC meeting, so there will be no comments on monetary policy until the release of the statement. With the labor market holding up and inflation still above target, the Fed is in no rush to adjust policy."

Focus returns to Treasuries with a 10-year note auction Wednesday and a 30-year auction Thursday. Recent auctions drew solid demand, which helped bring yields down from their late-May highs. Yields had fallen earlier last week on some soft economic news. Then yesterday, a New York Fed survey out Monday found inflation expectations falling, raising more enthusiasm around Treasuries – which move inversely from their yields.

While last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report soothed near-term concerns about the labor climate, several smaller reports last week and even nuggets in the jobs report itself suggest a slower jobs market. Layoffs in the services economy, initial and continuing jobless claims, and the percentage of people working all came in on the wrong side of the ledger in recent data, and at the same time labor costs rose for employers. Fewer employees are quitting and more tell surveys they're worried they might lose their jobs.

Signs of job worries showed up in recent sentiment surveys. The next read on sentiment comes Friday with preliminary June Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Before that, investors get a look at Thursday's weekly jobless claims, which may be more prominent than usual given two weeks in a row of growth above the near-term trend. That uptick in weekly jobless claims to eight-month highs might be a seasonal pattern suggesting the trend is a bit higher in the summer, said Kevin Gordon, director, senior investment strategist at Schwab.

In data yesterday, Chinese exports to the United States fell nearly 35% last month, the biggest monthly drop in more than five years. Overall Chinese export growth was 4.8% in May, down from 8.1% in April, and Chinese consumer prices fell, too, a potential signal of weak consumer demand.

Second quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 4.9%, according to FactSet. That would be the lowest for any quarter since late 2023, and down from 13.5% in the first quarter. It's also well below the March 31 estimate of 9.3%. This comes as the forward S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio climbed back to near historic highs above 21. Though P/E isn't ordinarily a signal of any kind of market move, it does suggest investors have priced in continued corporate strength, perhaps making it more incumbent on companies to impress with earnings or see their shares punished.

The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 39.68 in May, down from 41.18 in April. The index, which analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab's client accounts, showed that AI giant Nvidia (NVDA) was the biggest net-sell by Schwab clients, likely accounting for a significant portion of the overall STAX drop even in a month when the S&P 500 index rose 6%. Info tech and communication services were the biggest net-sell sectors, while clients were net buyers in health care.

On Monday, major U.S. indexes spent most of the day slightly above their Friday closing levels but not making any serious advance. The market seems to remain in "wait and see" mode ahead of hopes for trade progress, the coming Treasury auctions, and inflation data. The lack of major earnings in coming weeks also could mean fewer corporate-related catalysts.

Investors over the last week have migrated back toward cyclical sectors that tend to do best in a growing economy, including communication services, info tech, materials, and industrials. Energy stocks have done better recently, too, with crude oil coming off its best week of the year. It's up in part on hopes for trade progress, but rising supplies remain a possible headwind.

Technically, Monday featured a somewhat disappointing close for major indexes, which pulled back from intraday highs over the final hour. This could reflect caution with so much news ahead. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq managed slightly higher closes and the S&P 500 remained above the psychological 6,000 mark, but not by much. Small caps had a better day, helped by falling yields. Volatility climbed from last week's two-month lows.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) slipped 1.11 points Monday (0.0%) to 42,761.76; the S&P 500 index (SPX) added 5.52 points (+0.09%) to 6,005.88, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) gained 61.28 points (+0.31%) to 19.591.24.