CPI Next, with Big Implications for Rates, Market
Transcript of the podcast:
Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, November 10.
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifts attention to the broader economy after last week's chip-driven sell-off and Monday's plunge by Nvidia amid controversy surrounding its CEO.
Stepping away from that intrigue, it's hard to over-emphasize the importance of CPI, especially after last Friday's sizzling jobs report. A hotter-than-expected CPI could very well send stocks right back down from Monday's gains, igniting concerns about rate hikes and an overheated economy.
CPI, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show October's monthly headline inflation growth at 0.3%, down from 0.6% in September.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen up 0.2%, slower than September's 0.3% gain. There won't be a year-over-year CPI number reported because of last year's government shutdown, making the report an outlier and possibly harder to glean.
Fed speeches and Treasury auctions continue after the data, notably a 10-year Treasury auction this morning with results due before the close. Bond trading shuts tomorrow for Veteran's Day, but stock trading continues.
Demand for Treasuries has generally held up despite recent drops in yields, which arguably remain at attractive levels compared with recent years. Still, weak demand for today's 10-year auction and Thursday's 30-year auction could send yields up after the 10-year note yield fell to two-month lows below 4.85% on Monday thanks to crude's weakness.
Wall Street's fear gauge—the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—dropped under 20 late Monday after topping 28 last week, the highest level in months.
VIX might remain edgy over the next week as investors digest CPI today followed by Friday's October Producer Price Index (PPI) and next week's earnings from Nvidia.
Those earnings take on more importance following Monday's share plunge after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admitted having an affair with a woman alleged to be a Chinese spy.
At root, this is a governance and headline risk around the biggest name in AI, with much of the AI chip manufacturing, financing, and buildout going through Nvidia. While the fundamentals haven't changed yet, this sector was already shaken, so the next tests may be earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials, this week, followed by Nvidia's results next Tuesday.
Bad news for Nvidia appeared to be good news for competitors including Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, shares of which climbed Monday.
The AI market's ability to post solid gains on a day when the leading firm got taken to the woodshed could bode well for sentiment, suggesting investors won't necessarily let Nvidia's woes drag them down. The idea, at least on Monday, was that if Nvidia suffers any demand loss, others could pick up the slack.
That said, Huang is arguably a singular figure in AI with close relationships to many other players and high-level U.S. officials. Nvidia has never shared a succession plan for Huang, 63, who co-founded the company in 1993.
Earnings slow this week. However, CoreWeave reports this afternoon, an important barometer of "neocloud" companies in the news lately for heavy borrowing to fund data centers.
Others to watch include Nebius, Cisco, and Applied Materials on Thursday.
Rocket Lab shared results late Monday, missing earnings expectations and initially dropping 4% in post-market trading despite better-than-expected revenue and guidance. Its performance could affect shares of competitor SpaceX.
As of Friday, with 88% of S&P 500 firms reporting, 84% had surpassed Wall Street's earnings expectations, and blended earnings growth year-over-year was 31.4%, FactSet said.
Monday saw the S&P 500 Index see-saw between Nvidia and most other components, with Nvidia scraping the dirt while practically everything else touched the sky. Shares of Nvidia toppled 5% while the S&P 500 Index saw its biggest advance-to-decline spread of the year.
The index climbed 2.3% while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite rose 2.74%. Both remain below levels posted last Wednesday, however.
The small-cap Russell 2000 almost clawed all the way back to where it was before Thursday's sell-off, finishing just shy of last Wednesday's close.
While AI firms got a boost from Nvidia's woes, the rest of the market drew spirit from hopes for progress on Iran that sent crude plunging 4% to around $87 per barrel, down sharply from recent peaks above $100. Headlines from the Middle East at midday indicated progress in negotiations, but that wasn't confirmed by Western media by the time of Monday's close.
All 11 S&P sectors rose Monday, even energy despite the burden of weaker oil. Cyclical areas like industrials and discretionary led, while info tech climbed almost 3%. Health care stocks rose 2% and outperformed tech stocks over the last 30 days before Monday at a pace not seen since early 2000. Financials are up more than 1% over the last week and 6% over the last month, possibly as investors hope for a better deal and capital markets environment.
Technically, the sell-off Thursday came after the SPX tested and failed to claw past its then 50-day moving average of 7,690. Support came in when it proceeded to test its 200-day moving average of 7,330. The next zone of resistance could be in the old support area between 7,600 and 7,620, while taking out the 50-day moving average above that--now at 7,670—would be a key clearing event. A hot CPI might test the major indexes, with 7,500 a level below to watch.
Among individual movers Monday, chip and AI-related stocks led the way. Besides the 13% gain for AMD and almost 9% jump for Broadcom, advancers included Lumentum up 11%, Marvell Technology up 10%, and Arm Holdings up 7%.
Magnificent Seven names other than Nvidia rose, including a 5.5% gain for Tesla and a 5% jump for Meta Platforms amid hopes that costs could fall as more firms compete with Nvidia in the chip market.
Memory chip maker Western Digital climbed 10% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), which fell 12% in one day last Thursday, rebounded more 6.8%. However, it remains below last Wednesday's close.
CoreWeave climbed 6% ahead of today's earnings report, and Nebius added 9%. Nvidia owns shares of both and is partners with CoreWeave, which reports after the close today.
Berkshire Hathaway climbed almost 1%. The conglomerate's operating profit totaled $12.7 billion, down 5.8% from the previous year. Net earnings also declined amid weakness in Berkshire's insurance operations. Buybacks accelerated dramatically, however.
Constellation Energy climbed 10% as earnings and revenue easily beat Wall Street's consensus. The firm also offered a fiscal 2026 EPS outlook that topped expectations.
Other energy companies expected to benefit from AI, including Bloom Energy and NRG Energy also made double-digit gains.
Other companies punished last week amid AI slowdown fears including Caterpillar, Dell, SpaceX, and CrowdStrike all came roaring back Monday.
Airlines, automakers, retailers, home building firms, and restaurant stocks mostly climbed thanks to falling crude oil prices and Treasury yields that stayed in check.
Gold and other metals rose as crude oil prices dropped.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) catapulted 1,104.02 points (+2.15%) Monday to 52,389.75; the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) added 173.08 points (+2.35%) to 7,549.94, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) advanced 673.71 points (+2.74%) to 25,253.14.