Kevin Gordon
Kevin Gordon is the Head of Macro Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. He oversees macroeconomic research and works closely with the company's asset class strategists, researchers, and trading team to generate insights on the economy and markets for clients. In addition to providing analysis on global macro developments, he helps develop deep-dive projects as well as content for Schwab's public website, internal business partners, and social media outlets.
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July inflation data emphasized that tariff-related price pressures are still with us, in addition to some heat in the services sector—making the road to Fed cuts a bit bumpier.
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The July jobs report revealed significant downward revisions to payroll growth in the aftermath of the trade war, while also underscoring supply-side stress.
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The market's rebound from the April lows has had a speculative, risky leadership profile—but broader participation suggests the bull can keep running for now.
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Earnings results are shaping up to be quite solid this season, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions.
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Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.
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Market Outlook
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We believe the macro environment will continue to be unstable given policy crosscurrents and a wobbly labor market, but stocks can likely churn higher given a firmer earnings backdrop.
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There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
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The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
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Markets and Economy
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
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Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
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Markets and Economy
Iran war-related headlines continue to cause volatility in the markets and oil prices to rise, but our experts remind readers that uncertain times might also present opportunities.
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Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.