Kevin Gordon
Kevin Gordon is the Head of Macro Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. He oversees macroeconomic research and works closely with the company's asset class strategists, researchers, and trading team to generate insights on the economy and markets for clients. In addition to providing analysis on global macro developments, he helps develop deep-dive projects as well as content for Schwab's public website, internal business partners, and social media outlets.
What's new
Markets and Economy
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
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Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
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Markets and Economy
The stock and bond markets are taking the government shutdown—and lack of data releases—in stride, but how long the calm might last is an open question.
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Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.
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Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
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Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
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Growth and value are often thought of simplistically, but subsurface details in growth- and value-labeled indexes challenge pre-conceived notions of the factors.
The Trump Administration's plans to put tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have the potential to dent economic growth, boost inflation, and raise uncertainty.
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Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
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Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
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Market Outlook
Markets and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
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Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.