Kevin Gordon
Kevin Gordon is a Director and Senior Investment Strategist and is the research associate for Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders. In addition to analyzing the U.S. economy and stock market for Schwab's clients, he helps develop deep-dive projects as well as content for Schwab's public website, internal business partners, and social media outlets.
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Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
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Growth and value are often thought of simplistically, but subsurface details in growth- and value-labeled indexes challenge pre-conceived notions of the factors.
The Trump Administration's plans to put tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have the potential to dent economic growth, boost inflation, and raise uncertainty.
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Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
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Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
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Market Outlook
Markets and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
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Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.
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Earnings season is shaping up to be relatively strong so far, but the market will likely continue to shift focus to an increasingly murky sales picture.
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Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.
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While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.
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Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.