Kevin Gordon
Kevin Gordon is a Director and Senior Investment Strategist and is the research associate for Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders. In addition to analyzing the U.S. economy and stock market for Schwab's clients, he helps develop deep-dive projects as well as content for Schwab's public website, internal business partners, and social media outlets.
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What's new
July inflation data emphasized that tariff-related price pressures are still with us, in addition to some heat in the services sector—making the road to Fed cuts a bit bumpier.
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The July jobs report revealed significant downward revisions to payroll growth in the aftermath of the trade war, while also underscoring supply-side stress.
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The market's rebound from the April lows has had a speculative, risky leadership profile—but broader participation suggests the bull can keep running for now.
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The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.
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Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.
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There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
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The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
What's new
Markets and Economy
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
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What's new
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
What's new
Markets and Economy
The resilient job market has supported stock gains, but Washington policy has been a primary market driver so far this year.
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Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.
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What's new
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.