Kevin Gordon
Kevin Gordon is the Head of Macro Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. He oversees macroeconomic research and works closely with the company's asset class strategists, researchers, and trading team to generate insights on the economy and markets for clients. In addition to providing analysis on global macro developments, he helps develop deep-dive projects as well as content for Schwab's public website, internal business partners, and social media outlets.
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What's new
With official data halted by the U.S. government shutdown, investors turn to private and high-frequency indicators to track jobs, spending, and growth in real time.
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AI technology has the potential to profoundly improve industries and markets, but not without some risks—like valuation and profitability—that investors should be aware of.
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Greater mega-cap stock exposure carries significant upside risks, but concentration can also work against investors—helping make the case for diversification in portfolios.
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The housing market remains out of sync with the broader economy as affordability is depressed, but an improvement in supply and demand dynamics might be on the horizon.
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July inflation data emphasized that tariff-related price pressures are still with us, in addition to some heat in the services sector—making the road to Fed cuts a bit bumpier.
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The July jobs report revealed significant downward revisions to payroll growth in the aftermath of the trade war, while also underscoring supply-side stress.
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The market's rebound from the April lows has had a speculative, risky leadership profile—but broader participation suggests the bull can keep running for now.
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Still-healthy demand and disciplined cost control are central themes for earnings, which continue to suggest a mostly resilient economy in light of government data darkness.
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Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.
Stocks
What should I do
Onward
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
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There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
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The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.