Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
Theoretical forecasts and earnings announcements may provide initial insights as to the impact of current tariff proposals, although estimates may be imprecise.
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