Despite inflation pressure, tariffs and immigration policy are leading to slower job growth and consumer spending, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon.
The July jobs report revealed significant downward revisions to payroll growth in the aftermath of the trade war, while also underscoring supply-side stress.
Lately the markets and economy have shrugged off tariffs, but that may be changing as new trade deals increase tariffs and companies begin to pass those costs on to consumers.
The market's rebound from the April lows has had a speculative, risky leadership profile—but broader participation suggests the bull can keep running for now.
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