The major stock indexes stabilized somewhat Wednesday, after escalating fighting in the Middle East and a strike by U.S. port workers sent the markets reeling the day before.
On the company front, Magnificent Seven EV-maker Tesla (TSLA) stumbled despite reporting its first rise in quarterly deliveries for year, while Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) component Nike (NKE) dropped after the footwear maker reported a revenue miss and withdrew its full-year performance forecast.  

The atmosphere of uncertainty comes as investors prepare for the September nonfarm payrolls report Friday, which could offer a potentially consequential pulse-check on the economy's health ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting just over a month from now. Jobs growth has been slowing for several months. Analysts expect the economy to have added 140,000 in September, which would be below the 142,000 reported for August but an improvement from the three-month average of 116,000.

Investors got a labor market appetizer Wednesday, as a report showed private-sector hiring accelerated in September. The ADP® National Employment Report™—which tracks private employment and generally isn't corelated with official U.S. government payrolls data—showed the private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, topping the 120,000 analysts had expected. The report showed new jobs congregating mostly in the services sector at a more than 2-to-1 ratio to goods-producing positions. Pay gains for people staying in their jobs slipped to 4.7%, while people leaving for new ones got on average a 6.6% bump in pay, down from 7.3% in August.

"Stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month," said Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, in a press release. Jobs creation showed a "widespread rebound" after a five-month slowdown, the firm added. Construction jobs dominated newly created goods-producing positions.

While positive, the ADP report doesn't carry the same weight as the nonfarm payrolls report with the data-focused Fed.

"The Fed has been more focused on the labor market recently, so the payrolls report has the potential to influence the 25-basis-points versus 50-basis-points debate," said Cooper Howard, a director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "A weaker-than-expected report will likely send short-term yields lower."

Here's where the major benchmarks ended:
•    The S&P 500® index (SPX) was little changed at 5,709.54; the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) rose 39.55 points (0.09%) to 42,196.52; the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) gained 14.76 points (0.08%) to 17,925.12.
•    The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) added 5 basis points to 3.78%. 
•    The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) edged 0.4 points lower to 18.86.
Crude oil, which had been one of the few beneficiaries of the fighting in the Middle East, gave up some gains of previous sessions after a Wall Street Journal report suggested OPEC members weren't adhering to production targets. A Saudi official warned that oil could fall to $50 per barrel if targets weren't respected, according to the report. WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) fell from around $72 per barrel early in the session to near $70, and the S&P 500 Energy Sector pulled back from morning highs.

Stocks on the move
The return to calm seemed to lift a handful of big-name tech stocks Wednesday, with Apple (APPL) gaining 0.4%, and Nvidia (NVDIA) up 1.5%.

Otherwise, the following companies had stock price moves driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:
•    Conagra (CAG) plunged 8.07% after delivering disappointing results for its first quarter. The packaged food company reaffirmed its full-year forecast, saying it has "confidence in the underlying momentum" of the business. 
•    Humana (HUM) sank nearly 12% after a federal agency downgraded its quality ratings for the insurer's Medicare plans. 
•    Nike dropped nearly 7% after the shoemaker withdrew its fiscal-year forecast as the company transitions to a new CEO. Several Wall Street firms lowered their price targets, saying the company's turnaround appears to be taking longer than expected.
•    Salesforce (CRM) was up 3.18% following an upgrade from Northland to outperform from market perform. This came a week after Piper Sandler (PIPR) upgraded the tech company, citing strong free cash flow.
•    Tesla was down about 3.49% after reporting global deliveries of 462,890 vehicles in the third quarter. Analysts had expected around 460,000, up 6% from a year earlier, but the market may have been expecting an even stronger quarter. The improvement comes as the carmaker has struggled with dipping demand. Earlier this week, General Motors (GM) and Toyota (TM) reported falling sales volumes.

Spirits company Constellation (STZ) gives the week's final major earnings toast Thursday.

Data and more

While Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is likely to be the headlining data release this week, it will have some openers. Thursday brings weekly initial jobless claims data. Claims and continuing claims have mostly been on the wane. Analysts expect initial claims of 223,000, according to Briefing.com.

Thursday also brings the September Challenger Job Cuts report, which tracks layoff announcements by U.S. employers. August's tally was a five-month high of 75,891. The Fed closely follows layoff trends.

As for the nonfarm payrolls report, investors will be looking to see if the economy improved on its three-month average of less than 116,000 jobs created. A poor showing for September could reinforce expectations for a sharper rate cut when the Fed's rate-setting committee meets again in November. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday that steeper cuts might be required if jobs data disappoint. "A surprise to the weak side .... would pull me much further into really needing another dramatic move," Bostic told Reuters.

The report could also shed more light on paychecks. Analysts expect average hourly earnings to have risen 3.8% in September from a year earlier—equal to August's annual gain—but to have edged up just 0.3% from the previous month, according to Trading Economics. That would be slower than August's 0.4% monthly pace. If those numbers are correct, it would mean wages are easily keeping up with inflation and could help workers feel more confident about spending.

Late Wednesday, futures traders priced in a 65% chance the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates by a quarter point at its meeting on November 6–7, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. The odds of a bigger 50-basis-point cut were about 35%.

Looking beyond the labor market, investors will also get an update on the services sector Thursday, with the release of the ISM Services PMI® report for September. Services have generally been far stronger than manufacturing, and analysts expect the index to tick up to 51.6% from 51.5% the month before. Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

Overall, positive surprises have been outweighing negative ones recently in U.S. economic reports, with the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index back in positive territory, according to Schwab Senior Investment Strategist Kevin Gordon.